Sinking Ship

I'm with slate on the numbers. Makes you wonder if Romney has more objectivity than Clinton.

Hillary's Secret Weapon Against Attacks

Hillary need not worry about attacks anymore. She is completely immune from basically any attack from any candidate. Does she have inside information about Obama and McCain? No. Does she have a success she's been keeping hidden? No. What then is her political secret weapon? She is no longer in the race.

"But she still has supper delegates" you may answer. Take a look at the Delegate trend over the past few days:

Obama Clinton Date
215 250 3/28/08
217 251 3/29/08
218 251 3/31/08
220 251 4/2/08
(real clear politics)

It's been almost a week and Hillary has not shown anything close to a pickup in super delegates. Her other firewall was to win Penn by 20 points. This has also crumbled,
as Obama has done again and again, if he campaigns in a state he makes inroads. There is still weeks left in Penn. Clinton is going to be lucky to win it. By next week the media is going to start treating Hillary like Huckabee. The race is over.

Puerto Rico - The Hidden Giant

Puerto Rico is the single biggest wild card in the entire democratic race. They've had no real history of voting trends and they've had no polling. Conventional wisdom is that their ties to NY and being south of the border puts them in Clinton's Pocket. How wrong they are.

Most people in PR are mixed race and will identify with Obama over Clinton. This blows Clinton's overall base. She can only count on women and connections with NY. Beyond that Puerto Rico is an Island Nation. The other island that has voted went in no small margin to Obama. Puerto Rico is more like Hawaii than it is like our southern states.

Beyond this as Penn gets closer the talk will turn more toward PR and questions will start being asked about PR and it's place in American culture. This could bring PR to the national eye and the idea of a 51rst state back into focus for the people of PR.

When will she drop out?

Well I was a week off, this week the headlines are all about Hillary dropping out. This is mainly because they don't have a video of something to plaster on the news. Nothing has changed since Texas and Ohio except the lack of a story to follow. Texas is having it's convention this weekend so we'll know just how much Hillary didn't win Texas so I don't see an end to the news cycle that she should drop out.

Next week I fully expect Obama to pull within single digits of Clinton in Ohio and this will make a little news but more importantly start resetting the bar as it did in Texas and Ohio. Remember a couple weeks before those contests Clinton was supposed to win by 20 points or drop out. After Obama surged in the polls it became he had to win both. This will probably also play a little in Penn, though I think with the end coming closer if Clinton can't win by +10 it'll be over.

So what's my new prediction? This is over the 2nd week of May. She may not quit but I think you'll see something more akin to the republican race when Huckabee kept running. Between Hillary's single digit win/loss in Penn and her loss in NC and Indiana, and the movement of more super delegates to Obama she'll realize she would do more harm to her career by staying in. At this point Obama only has to convince 75 or so Delegates to support him at the national convention. They don't even have to endorse him, just say as Cantwell says "I'll vote for who has the most pledged delegates".

We have 2 1/2 weeks left till the Penn. primary. Between then and now I don't expect too much to change. If Hillary had something new to say she would have said it last week. The republicans are going to hold any real fire till after July. I expect Hillary to stay around 10 points behind in the national polls and ahead by single digits in Penn.

The end of March

You can find 100 different sites that advertise the past but I'm going to look toward the future. So what is up for the next week? Well let me guess:

1. I predict a Clinton scandal.

2. I predict a 50/50 split with super delegates in the next 2 weeks

3. I predict Obama gaining on Hillary in Penn.

A week late

So I predicted that the media would again start looking at the long odds that Hillary has to win the nomination. I was wrong, it took 2 weeks. Even still it's kind of a minority of pundits but it's hit a point that it's back in the news. Some people give her 5% some give her 10%. Which really means 0% as it's basically impossible unless there is a third eye in Obama's skull.

The more I predict the more I have to take into account the fact that news agencies take money. We are now 4 weeks out from the next election. The race it's self is getting old and what can actually win votes is for the media to make Penn. look like a do or die for Hillary. They are starting to do that, this time though, unlike Ohio, Hillary has to win big to make this work at all. So the media will probably over the next 3 weeks figure out what that magic number is. Personally I think it'll be 10%. If Hillary can win by 10% it'll be a win for her, if not I think the race is over.

NYT = annoying blackbox

Think sending a letter to the NYT will result in any meaningful dialog? Think again.

I read a pretty idiotic article from the NYT and wanted to let them know that it was the last straw, I wouldn't be viewing their website till they changed.

Here is what I sent them:

Honestly your lack of foresight in requiring a log in to view articles upset me but Dalia Sussman's recent article made me wish I hadn't gone through the trouble. If you are going to be bias at least be honest about it. I'll not log in again as your site continually requires.

No thank you
Michael Mink

They responded with:

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This automated message is to confirm receipt of your e-mail.

If your request is to unsubscribe from our free e-mail service(s), please allow three business days
for us to process your request. You may receive some additional e-mail(s) depending on when
your request is received.

We thank you for your patience.

Regards,
NYTimes.com
Customer Service
www.nytimes.com/help

Yeah... So I responded with:

If you are going to send a form letter do so without trying to automagically decide what I said.

-mmink

Which apparently sparked this reply:

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Yeah, so if you want to talk to the NYT and let them know something I recommend coding up an autoreply that can talk to their autoreply.

Campaign Podcasts

I'm really impressed that the Clinton campaign is putting out their conf calls as podcasts! I hope the Obama campaign follows suit.

Thanks to Taegan Gooddard at the Political Wire.

Clinton Supporters

For the first time in almost 20 years we have a black candidate for president. This breaks all kinds of norms. First it, for the first time in decades, makes black america wake up to the fact that they need to be involved in the process. More importantly, it forces certain parts of the democratic party to acknowledge their racism. (Those of us in the middle have seen racism on both sides for a while...) This self reflection won't take place till after the primary is over but it's in the mail. America, as a whole gains, and it gains more every time someone argues the issues and not focuses the debate onto race.

I'm actually starting to think this might be good for Obama as by the time October hits Race is going to be pretty old news. If that's the case I think Obama has the best chance to convince America he has the solutions to meet our problems.

I am Woman Hear Me Roar

So Geraldine Ferraro finally stepped out of Clinton's group. I wish older Clinton supporters were more in the public eye. They make up the bulk of Clinton's support and Ferraro is a good example of their thinking. They truly believe the USA has changed so much that a Black candidate is a shoe in for the Democratic nomination and feel threatened by it.

In case you haven't seen her comments here they are in chronological order:

"if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position."

She told Sawyer she was "absolutely not" sorry for what she said.

“I really think they’re attacking me because I’m white. How’s that?”

It's now at the following step down:
"Dear Hillary –

I am stepping down from your finance committee so I can speak for myself and you can continue to speak for yourself about what is at stake in this campaign.

The Obama campaign is attacking me to hurt you.

I won't let that happen.

Thank you for everything you have done and continue to do to make this a better world for my children and grandchildren.

You have my deep admiration and respect.

Gerry"

I think Hillary is going to have a talk with Geraldine tonight and we won't hear from here again. None of this is helpful for Clinton, it makes her look like she can't control her people at best.

Why Clinton Can't Win

So I figured I should probably explain in a little more detail why Clinton can't win. It boils down to there only being 600 or so delegates left in the 10 states/territories left to fight for. Obama currently holds a 155 delegate lead, this will increase tomorrow after Mississippi. Clinton would have to beat Obama by 26% in the rest of the states. Not only has she been unable to win any state by that amount, she isn't going to win some of the states, it's just not going to happen. Even with Michigan and Florida thrown in she can't make up a 155 point deficit.

So we go into the convention and she tells super delegates that she would be the best choice for all kinds of great reasons and she would have Obama as her VP. Sounds good huh? But Obama holds the Trump card. He plays hard ball and tells the remaining super delegates "I walk if you don't give me the nomination and that'll be without any conditions" ie. no Clinton on my ticket. What are they going to do? If they pick Clinton Obama walks and McCain is basically handed the presidency because Obama and all his supporters will have no reason to help Clinton plus Clinton is severely handicapped. They are forced to pick Obama and rally around him.

Clinton made a big mistake in bringing up the VP idea this early, it might have worked at the convention but now Obama is going to be saying he won't take the VP slot till the convention. Not only will he be galvanized in his opposition to it but so will all his supporters.

Media Keeps The Gravy Train Chugging

As Dick Morris aptly puts it "It's Still Over For Hillary". Anyone with some basic math skills can see that. She is so far behind that there isn't a plausible path to victory. I'm pretty sure that as all the media outlets started seeing the returns come in from Ohio and Texas they thought "crap, this is over". They quickly changed the narrative to forget about the numbers and focus on the fact that she won at all.

That narrative is set for a test tomorrow after the Mississippi primary. If Obama can win it by 15% it will force the media to go back and take a look at delegate counts. The new narrative will look at best possible outcomes for Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania and see that it's still nigh impossible for her to win. One thing the media is missing is that Hillary doesn't want a recount she wants the current delegates seated, that's not going to happen.

To sum up I predict that by Monday of next week the new (old) narrative will set back in. "When will Clinton drop out of the race?"

I'd also like to add that now that the media has a new scandal to focus their attention on they'll be even less likely to care if Hillary can win or not.

Clinton enters the 21st century

It looks like Hillary just started using Google Adwords. Obama has been using them for months. I'm amazed the Clinton campaign finally decided to get in the game.

AlienNation

Steve Benen over at The Carpet Bagger Report has a good catch that the Clinton Campaign is thinking about a lawsuit if they find a way that it could help them. Though the media is picking this up they are not putting this together with the lawsuit threatened in Nevada. The Clinton campaign has a history of thinking in terms of using every last tool at their disposal to win. Ironically this is why they are losing.

Obama hasn't touched many of the obvious knocks on the Clinton campaign past or present. Keeping himself far above the grasping that the Clinton campaign is doing. This has been since the beginning and it's one of the big reasons he's attractive to a wider group. I think the Clinton campaign thinks no one hears about this or notices. They are wrong, people hear and read snipets of all the stories. If one of those stories is "Clinton explores lawsuit" they put that with other information that looks more like Clinton is going to be divisive and Obama is a uniter. The press has already covered how similar their positions. What's left is the person and style. Obama is everything that Bush is not and Clinton hasn't done enough to make that disparity. You'll also notice that the Obama campaign very subtly identifies the two. She voted for the war, she's the politics of the past. All of the points the Obama campaign is putting forward is about the differences between he and Clinton, but he and Bush. It has to be subtle to work and they are doing an amazing job of it.

The Future

Want to know the next up and coming influence in the world?

TalkingPointsMemo.com or TPM

It's one of many blogs in the US, it's the best and I'd imagine it will be the dominate force in the blogosphere and the net in general by 2010. I'll go so far as to say that it'll have the most hits of any political website/blog in 2010. I shit you not, more than Kos.

Bill Cunningham digs a hole and fills it with hilarity

For those that missed it Bill Cunningham opened for McCain the other day by stressing Barack's middle name. NPR scored an interview today with Bill to get his side of the story resulting in, quite possibly the funniest segment in the past 2 years.

I highly recommend a listen.

Obama won that debate

Obama acted presidential and Hillary hit no new chords. She needs to fire who ever coaches her on these debates, going from a lame xerox comment to something 2% of america can get, an SNL skit, isn't the best move. Following that with debating the difference between "reject" and "denounce" seems silly and reminds people of "the definition of 'is'" comment Bill is famous for. She also set herself up for a fall on the NAFTA issue, you can't claim 35 years and then deny NAFTA. This is exactly the reason Obama never went after her claiming 35 years of experience. Big parts of those 35 years are not helpful to her.

I enjoyed watching the debate but am still surprised how much better Obama is in every debate. He owes quite a lot to this primary process, he's going to be excellent in the fall debates.

What Independants see in Obama

Stephen F. Hayes at the WSJ had a great piece today looking at how Obama has been able to keep his independent and republican backers while still being the most liberal voting member of senate. Something that both Hillary and increasingly McCain are blind to.

In the end, Mr. Obama is simply campaigning for office in the same way he says he would operate if he were elected. "We're not looking for a chief operating officer when we select a president," he said during a question and answer session at Google headquarters back in December.

"What we're looking for is somebody who will chart a course and say: Here is where America needs to go -- here is how to solve our energy crisis, here's how we need to revamp our education system -- and then gather the talent together and then mobilize that talent to achieve that goal. And to inspire a sense of hope and possibility."

Like Ronald Reagan did.

Glimpses into humanity

The top of reddit right now is a self post: Do you ever type a long and thoughtful comment, then think, "Fuckit, who cares", then cancel?

Fairly often. Sometimes its because I'm six replies deep and really just talking with one person who I don't know in the faintest, so.. fuck it, I got better things to do.

Other times its because I suddenly figure the comment I'm replying to is a troll, so fuck it.

Often its because I realise that I really don't know for certain what I'm talking about (ie, where do I find a reilable source for this statement) but its really not important enough to search for a source, so fuck it.

And the rest of the time its because I've realised that the argument is more nuanced than really befits online debate. I could try and construct a solid argument in the next ten paragraphs, but fuck it: you, random stranger on the internet, can just stay wrong.

To some it up, laziness. It's basically why we have a government and society that often fails to to choose a path that makes sense. This doesn't just happen online, it happens everyday and all kinds of circumstances but at least I was somewhat heartened by the reply:

My favourite is when I make assertions, look for sources to back up my position and realise I'm wrong :)

The US Economy

Brian Wesbury had a great article over at Real Clear Politics about inflation. I should admit that my interest in politics stems in large part from my indulgence in economics. I'm also an independent because both the left and the right fail miserably when it comes to understanding macro economics. Or rather they understand it but their constituencies don't.

We are headed for a rude awakening this year, a friend sent me this list of countries current account deficit and I think it sums up the major problem facing the global economy. Namely that the US buys more than it sells. Obviously it can't go on forever and at some point the dollar has to fall and everyone else's currency rises. I predict, this will happen in 2008.

Certainly it's happened a little over the last year examples include the euro and the looney however it's been on a small scale and offset from the massive ammount of foreign reinvestment into America. This year we have reached a point where America is in recession and will no longer be buying items that are not really needed. They will still eat, drink, and be merry but a more minimalist future is in the works. Who does this harm? The nations that trade with the US, suddenly not only is there a lack of a US market but the US has very little goods to sell. This brings about a rapidly declining dollar as countries pull out of their US investments so that they can actually buy manufactured goods. I see this lasting till 2010, assuming the US government doesn't mess up and interfere with economics. It'll take 2 years for the US economy to create the manufacturing economy that we've been unable to support for the last 10 years due to the strength of the dollar.

By 2012 the global recession will start to fade and the dollar will again gain strength. America's downturn will end in the spring of 2010.

CNN - Confused News Network

Not sure if you've been following this story but Chez Pazienza has a new post about CNN, his former employer.

My only hope is that Ed Litvak's departure from American Morning will somehow be good for the show, although I'm inclined to think that until someone puts an arm around Jon Klein, writes something nice about him, then pushes him out the door, nothing is going to change. It'll just be more of the same nonsense.

Not much in the article but it is interesting how major media is still clueless about how to harness the internet and not have it blow up in their face, as this example exemplifies. The networks would be wise to create online communities around their shows. Certainly it releases control and causes many small fires but it's better than having big fires that cause severe damage.

Predition Check

So sunday I claimed:

Monday we'll see Obama ahead in Texas and within 5 points in Ohio, demonstrating just how much the Xerox comment didn't help her in the debate.

Looks like I was at least half right. A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows the Ohio primary to be at its narrowest margin yet from any pollster. Hillary Clinton still has the lead, but it's a bare 50%-46% edge over Barack Obama. Thanks TPM for the catch.

We'll have to wait till this afternoon to see if there are some new Texas polls.

Update! Looks like CNN has a Texas poll out and Obama is up 50% to 46%. Still a statistical dead heat and other polls out today have Clinton still with the lead but I feel pretty good.

Obama will win the election in Nov.

I know, I know, it's too early to tell and November is 10 months away. Even Hillary can explain how the dynamics can change. Given that, the chances are slim that McCain can triumph in Nov. The reasons are many:

1. Independents will not support McCain. Up till now McCain had the most attractive platform for independents. Now the tables have turned, McCain is a war supporter, he has to be to maintain the republican base but by doing so he loses the independant voters that see the war as emblematic of everything that is wrong with America.

2. Age matters. In an election that is increasingly about change being old and having experience isn't helpful. I do have to say the McCain people are, in fact, smarter than the Clinton people. He isn't touting 45 years of experience. Instead he is focusing on his ability to be himself.

3. Obama has consistently outperformed. This demonstrates his ability to connect to the heart of voters in America. McCain has yet to come to terms with the reason he has the nomination. America is looking for change. McCain is change to the republicans but it's harder to sell that to America when up against Obama. He would have a smooth road to the nomination against Clinton, but against Obama it's far more of a challenge.

4. The base. Obama could come out tomorrow and support vouchers and still maintain 95% of the democratic base. McCain could mention that a constitutional ban on gay marriage or abortion is silly and he would lose 30% of the republican party. In other words Obama is walking along a 6 lane highway, McCain has 6 cm.

5. Monkeys. America winces every time they see Bush on TV. They are looking for someone that can actually deliver a $5 word without coaching. McCain isn't bad, but he isn't Obama either.

6. The War. Those that care about it will vote for Obama, those that care about the economy will vote for Obama. I honestly don't see any win for McCain. If McCain wanted my vote he would be asking for a balance budget amendment to the constitution, he is not, he will get no support from independents and moderates until he starts talking about this kind of conservatism.

7. The Establishment. McCain is going to have to educate voters, Obama has but to make an appearance. Honestly I see McCain making a bigger personal commitment to change but Obama personifies it even if he doesn't completely represent it.

8. "My Friend/s". McCain has got to stop using this. It's very off-putting. This is not the election to be alienating voters. This will be the biggest turnout of any election in the past 30 years. If you want to attract younger voters you'll be trying hard to convince the electorate of your ideas and not solidifying your base (hint hint hillary).

9. Last but certainly not least, the internet. If you want people to make phone calls or donate money you're going to have to have a strong internet presence. So far Obama has demonstrated superiority.

Obama wins Nevada... a second time

Looks like Obama picked up even more delegates in Nevada then he expected.

Instead of being "ready on day one" Clinton may want to try being ready to get the actual delegates she deserves today. Though maybe Mark Pen advised her that these delegates don't mean as much since they are from a small state.

Objectivity, Clinton could use some

Michael Goodwin makes a good point that Hillary is starting to look unpresidential. Between the Xerox comment and her odd decision to mock Obama. I'm wondering if Hillary has lost all objectivity. Certainly she must understand that Obama is striking a cord with voters. If she has any chance of winning by the margin she needs in Ohio and Texas she needs to go beyond mocking her competition. She may solidify her base with these tactics but that's not going to help her win. She needs to come out with her own vision of change and progress that actually resonates with America. If she wasn't taking all this personally she would see that Obama supporters are not her enemy and his message is not attacking her. All she's doing is highlighting why people like Obama. Monday we'll see Obama ahead in Texas and within 5 points in Ohio, demonstrating just how much the Xerox comment didn't help her in the debate.

A quick prediction... Hillary will have at least 3 more major press making gaffs between now and March 5. She is getting cornered and that is going to force her to try some crazy ideas.

Blog Buyout

The biggest issue that will confront the blogosphere in 2008 will be the amount of money the Obama campaign spent on ads supporting those blogs. It's incredibly smart on the Obama front and just one of the many reasons I support Obama for understanding where the nation and I are coming from.

It took the republicans almost 20 years to understand the impact of right wing radio (which I listen to), it's only taken 10 years for the democrats to understand the benefits of the blogosphere.

Explorations in Republican problems

Lets have a fun look at the Wisconsin exit polls:

CNN Wisconsin exit polls

In the democratic primaries there was a 9% Republican precipitation out of a 1,098,802 total democratic primary votes. So that means 98,892 voters are republican leaning, and of those 72% voted for Obama which gives us 71,202 republicans that voted for Obama. The entire republican vote in Wisconsin was 403,568 if we take the named republicans (73%) out of that, we have 294,605 self described republicans that voted in the republican primary. Total republicans voting in Wisconsin is 365,807, and 98,892 of those voted for Obama. That's 27% of the republican base voting for Obama. This does not bode well for the republicans in November.

And the flip side? Lets start with the number of democrats in the republican primary which is 5% of 294,605 or 14,730. They don't even have info for results that small. Even if all 20,178 voters voted for Clinton that would only make up .01 democratic primary voters. Again the republicans have to be worried.

Ohio and Texas; the end of the begining.

There are all sorts of things to predict here. I'll start off with the easy prediction first.

Obama will clinch the nomination.
As it stands, nothing is preventing Obama from doing well enough to effectively end the democratic primary. He has what some have labeled "momentum" but I choose to call it advantage, specifically that he has a chance to campaign. Obama has done well in almost every state he has had a chance to campaign in. The polls reflect this having inevitably trended toward him when he has spent time in the state. Iowa is the best example of this. We have over a week to go and he is already making it a close race.

Specifically I'm seeing Obama continue to do well in the polls but I see him leveling off at +5-10% ahead by march 5 with ultimate wins of 8% in Ohio and a total delegate lead of 20 in Texas.

Clinton will not give up on march 6
There are several reasons for this but mainly they will want to fund raise to pay off debt. Minor reasons include Bill being able to relax, party cohesion, Hillary's senate seat.

Huckabee will drop out within a week of Hillary's concession
I believe the only reason he is in the race is because it gives him a platform. If Hillary drops the media will stop covering the primaries.

That's enough predictions for now. If I get 10% right I'll be happy! I would like to comment on Hillary's campaign though. I've read a lot of comments and blogs but I think Steve Benen has it right when he says:

Given the degree of outrage, one might assume these are new Obama mailings, but they’re actually old ones, which the Clinton campaign hopes to exploit now for new mileage.

One would think with as much money as they are spending on consultants they would have come up with something original.

Beyond this, in general, the Clinton campaign has missed a crucial point this election. Blogs are read by donors. Obama may have been lucky but fundamentally he has been able to capitalize on the internet's ability to convince voters. Those voters also donate. I remember the first major press Obama got and that was his ability to match donations even when he was down 30% in the national polls. The internet and people commenting and blogging are responsible for that.

Obligitory First Post

I just want to say thanks to Adam for his continual attempts get me to create this instead of constantly sending him IMs and to my fiancé for putting up with my constant political rantings. That said let me introduce myself. I'm an independent. I will admit to voting for Bush in 2000. I regret that decision with a large part of my being. Who would have thought that he was telling the truth about being an evangelical Christian? I'm an Obama supporter but have reservations, though not enough from keeping me from phone banking and donating a paltry amount to his campaign. Other items will probably come up as the blog goes on, however let me lay down some objectives:

1. To make some hard core predictions, because I'll be wrong, and it'll be fun!

2. To foster discussion.

3. To vent a little about what I'm thinking.

Thanks for reading, I hope you all enjoy.