Saturday, February 23, 2008

Ohio and Texas; the end of the begining.

There are all sorts of things to predict here. I'll start off with the easy prediction first.

Obama will clinch the nomination.
As it stands, nothing is preventing Obama from doing well enough to effectively end the democratic primary. He has what some have labeled "momentum" but I choose to call it advantage, specifically that he has a chance to campaign. Obama has done well in almost every state he has had a chance to campaign in. The polls reflect this having inevitably trended toward him when he has spent time in the state. Iowa is the best example of this. We have over a week to go and he is already making it a close race.

Specifically I'm seeing Obama continue to do well in the polls but I see him leveling off at +5-10% ahead by march 5 with ultimate wins of 8% in Ohio and a total delegate lead of 20 in Texas.

Clinton will not give up on march 6
There are several reasons for this but mainly they will want to fund raise to pay off debt. Minor reasons include Bill being able to relax, party cohesion, Hillary's senate seat.

Huckabee will drop out within a week of Hillary's concession
I believe the only reason he is in the race is because it gives him a platform. If Hillary drops the media will stop covering the primaries.

That's enough predictions for now. If I get 10% right I'll be happy! I would like to comment on Hillary's campaign though. I've read a lot of comments and blogs but I think Steve Benen has it right when he says:

Given the degree of outrage, one might assume these are new Obama mailings, but they’re actually old ones, which the Clinton campaign hopes to exploit now for new mileage.


One would think with as much money as they are spending on consultants they would have come up with something original.

Beyond this, in general, the Clinton campaign has missed a crucial point this election. Blogs are read by donors. Obama may have been lucky but fundamentally he has been able to capitalize on the internet's ability to convince voters. Those voters also donate. I remember the first major press Obama got and that was his ability to match donations even when he was down 30% in the national polls. The internet and people commenting and blogging are responsible for that.

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