Puerto Rico - The Hidden Giant

Puerto Rico is the single biggest wild card in the entire democratic race. They've had no real history of voting trends and they've had no polling. Conventional wisdom is that their ties to NY and being south of the border puts them in Clinton's Pocket. How wrong they are.

Most people in PR are mixed race and will identify with Obama over Clinton. This blows Clinton's overall base. She can only count on women and connections with NY. Beyond that Puerto Rico is an Island Nation. The other island that has voted went in no small margin to Obama. Puerto Rico is more like Hawaii than it is like our southern states.

Beyond this as Penn gets closer the talk will turn more toward PR and questions will start being asked about PR and it's place in American culture. This could bring PR to the national eye and the idea of a 51rst state back into focus for the people of PR.

When will she drop out?

Well I was a week off, this week the headlines are all about Hillary dropping out. This is mainly because they don't have a video of something to plaster on the news. Nothing has changed since Texas and Ohio except the lack of a story to follow. Texas is having it's convention this weekend so we'll know just how much Hillary didn't win Texas so I don't see an end to the news cycle that she should drop out.

Next week I fully expect Obama to pull within single digits of Clinton in Ohio and this will make a little news but more importantly start resetting the bar as it did in Texas and Ohio. Remember a couple weeks before those contests Clinton was supposed to win by 20 points or drop out. After Obama surged in the polls it became he had to win both. This will probably also play a little in Penn, though I think with the end coming closer if Clinton can't win by +10 it'll be over.

So what's my new prediction? This is over the 2nd week of May. She may not quit but I think you'll see something more akin to the republican race when Huckabee kept running. Between Hillary's single digit win/loss in Penn and her loss in NC and Indiana, and the movement of more super delegates to Obama she'll realize she would do more harm to her career by staying in. At this point Obama only has to convince 75 or so Delegates to support him at the national convention. They don't even have to endorse him, just say as Cantwell says "I'll vote for who has the most pledged delegates".

We have 2 1/2 weeks left till the Penn. primary. Between then and now I don't expect too much to change. If Hillary had something new to say she would have said it last week. The republicans are going to hold any real fire till after July. I expect Hillary to stay around 10 points behind in the national polls and ahead by single digits in Penn.

The end of March

You can find 100 different sites that advertise the past but I'm going to look toward the future. So what is up for the next week? Well let me guess:

1. I predict a Clinton scandal.

2. I predict a 50/50 split with super delegates in the next 2 weeks

3. I predict Obama gaining on Hillary in Penn.

A week late

So I predicted that the media would again start looking at the long odds that Hillary has to win the nomination. I was wrong, it took 2 weeks. Even still it's kind of a minority of pundits but it's hit a point that it's back in the news. Some people give her 5% some give her 10%. Which really means 0% as it's basically impossible unless there is a third eye in Obama's skull.

The more I predict the more I have to take into account the fact that news agencies take money. We are now 4 weeks out from the next election. The race it's self is getting old and what can actually win votes is for the media to make Penn. look like a do or die for Hillary. They are starting to do that, this time though, unlike Ohio, Hillary has to win big to make this work at all. So the media will probably over the next 3 weeks figure out what that magic number is. Personally I think it'll be 10%. If Hillary can win by 10% it'll be a win for her, if not I think the race is over.

NYT = annoying blackbox

Think sending a letter to the NYT will result in any meaningful dialog? Think again.

I read a pretty idiotic article from the NYT and wanted to let them know that it was the last straw, I wouldn't be viewing their website till they changed.

Here is what I sent them:

Honestly your lack of foresight in requiring a log in to view articles upset me but Dalia Sussman's recent article made me wish I hadn't gone through the trouble. If you are going to be bias at least be honest about it. I'll not log in again as your site continually requires.

No thank you
Michael Mink

They responded with:

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Yeah... So I responded with:

If you are going to send a form letter do so without trying to automagically decide what I said.

-mmink

Which apparently sparked this reply:

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Yeah, so if you want to talk to the NYT and let them know something I recommend coding up an autoreply that can talk to their autoreply.

Campaign Podcasts

I'm really impressed that the Clinton campaign is putting out their conf calls as podcasts! I hope the Obama campaign follows suit.

Thanks to Taegan Gooddard at the Political Wire.

Clinton Supporters

For the first time in almost 20 years we have a black candidate for president. This breaks all kinds of norms. First it, for the first time in decades, makes black america wake up to the fact that they need to be involved in the process. More importantly, it forces certain parts of the democratic party to acknowledge their racism. (Those of us in the middle have seen racism on both sides for a while...) This self reflection won't take place till after the primary is over but it's in the mail. America, as a whole gains, and it gains more every time someone argues the issues and not focuses the debate onto race.

I'm actually starting to think this might be good for Obama as by the time October hits Race is going to be pretty old news. If that's the case I think Obama has the best chance to convince America he has the solutions to meet our problems.

I am Woman Hear Me Roar

So Geraldine Ferraro finally stepped out of Clinton's group. I wish older Clinton supporters were more in the public eye. They make up the bulk of Clinton's support and Ferraro is a good example of their thinking. They truly believe the USA has changed so much that a Black candidate is a shoe in for the Democratic nomination and feel threatened by it.

In case you haven't seen her comments here they are in chronological order:

"if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position."

She told Sawyer she was "absolutely not" sorry for what she said.

“I really think they’re attacking me because I’m white. How’s that?”

It's now at the following step down:
"Dear Hillary –

I am stepping down from your finance committee so I can speak for myself and you can continue to speak for yourself about what is at stake in this campaign.

The Obama campaign is attacking me to hurt you.

I won't let that happen.

Thank you for everything you have done and continue to do to make this a better world for my children and grandchildren.

You have my deep admiration and respect.

Gerry"

I think Hillary is going to have a talk with Geraldine tonight and we won't hear from here again. None of this is helpful for Clinton, it makes her look like she can't control her people at best.

Why Clinton Can't Win

So I figured I should probably explain in a little more detail why Clinton can't win. It boils down to there only being 600 or so delegates left in the 10 states/territories left to fight for. Obama currently holds a 155 delegate lead, this will increase tomorrow after Mississippi. Clinton would have to beat Obama by 26% in the rest of the states. Not only has she been unable to win any state by that amount, she isn't going to win some of the states, it's just not going to happen. Even with Michigan and Florida thrown in she can't make up a 155 point deficit.

So we go into the convention and she tells super delegates that she would be the best choice for all kinds of great reasons and she would have Obama as her VP. Sounds good huh? But Obama holds the Trump card. He plays hard ball and tells the remaining super delegates "I walk if you don't give me the nomination and that'll be without any conditions" ie. no Clinton on my ticket. What are they going to do? If they pick Clinton Obama walks and McCain is basically handed the presidency because Obama and all his supporters will have no reason to help Clinton plus Clinton is severely handicapped. They are forced to pick Obama and rally around him.

Clinton made a big mistake in bringing up the VP idea this early, it might have worked at the convention but now Obama is going to be saying he won't take the VP slot till the convention. Not only will he be galvanized in his opposition to it but so will all his supporters.

Media Keeps The Gravy Train Chugging

As Dick Morris aptly puts it "It's Still Over For Hillary". Anyone with some basic math skills can see that. She is so far behind that there isn't a plausible path to victory. I'm pretty sure that as all the media outlets started seeing the returns come in from Ohio and Texas they thought "crap, this is over". They quickly changed the narrative to forget about the numbers and focus on the fact that she won at all.

That narrative is set for a test tomorrow after the Mississippi primary. If Obama can win it by 15% it will force the media to go back and take a look at delegate counts. The new narrative will look at best possible outcomes for Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania and see that it's still nigh impossible for her to win. One thing the media is missing is that Hillary doesn't want a recount she wants the current delegates seated, that's not going to happen.

To sum up I predict that by Monday of next week the new (old) narrative will set back in. "When will Clinton drop out of the race?"

I'd also like to add that now that the media has a new scandal to focus their attention on they'll be even less likely to care if Hillary can win or not.