When will she drop out?

Well I was a week off, this week the headlines are all about Hillary dropping out. This is mainly because they don't have a video of something to plaster on the news. Nothing has changed since Texas and Ohio except the lack of a story to follow. Texas is having it's convention this weekend so we'll know just how much Hillary didn't win Texas so I don't see an end to the news cycle that she should drop out.

Next week I fully expect Obama to pull within single digits of Clinton in Ohio and this will make a little news but more importantly start resetting the bar as it did in Texas and Ohio. Remember a couple weeks before those contests Clinton was supposed to win by 20 points or drop out. After Obama surged in the polls it became he had to win both. This will probably also play a little in Penn, though I think with the end coming closer if Clinton can't win by +10 it'll be over.

So what's my new prediction? This is over the 2nd week of May. She may not quit but I think you'll see something more akin to the republican race when Huckabee kept running. Between Hillary's single digit win/loss in Penn and her loss in NC and Indiana, and the movement of more super delegates to Obama she'll realize she would do more harm to her career by staying in. At this point Obama only has to convince 75 or so Delegates to support him at the national convention. They don't even have to endorse him, just say as Cantwell says "I'll vote for who has the most pledged delegates".

We have 2 1/2 weeks left till the Penn. primary. Between then and now I don't expect too much to change. If Hillary had something new to say she would have said it last week. The republicans are going to hold any real fire till after July. I expect Hillary to stay around 10 points behind in the national polls and ahead by single digits in Penn.