Monday, March 10, 2008

Why Clinton Can't Win

So I figured I should probably explain in a little more detail why Clinton can't win. It boils down to there only being 600 or so delegates left in the 10 states/territories left to fight for. Obama currently holds a 155 delegate lead, this will increase tomorrow after Mississippi. Clinton would have to beat Obama by 26% in the rest of the states. Not only has she been unable to win any state by that amount, she isn't going to win some of the states, it's just not going to happen. Even with Michigan and Florida thrown in she can't make up a 155 point deficit.

So we go into the convention and she tells super delegates that she would be the best choice for all kinds of great reasons and she would have Obama as her VP. Sounds good huh? But Obama holds the Trump card. He plays hard ball and tells the remaining super delegates "I walk if you don't give me the nomination and that'll be without any conditions" ie. no Clinton on my ticket. What are they going to do? If they pick Clinton Obama walks and McCain is basically handed the presidency because Obama and all his supporters will have no reason to help Clinton plus Clinton is severely handicapped. They are forced to pick Obama and rally around him.

Clinton made a big mistake in bringing up the VP idea this early, it might have worked at the convention but now Obama is going to be saying he won't take the VP slot till the convention. Not only will he be galvanized in his opposition to it but so will all his supporters.

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