Monday, March 24, 2008

A week late

So I predicted that the media would again start looking at the long odds that Hillary has to win the nomination. I was wrong, it took 2 weeks. Even still it's kind of a minority of pundits but it's hit a point that it's back in the news. Some people give her 5% some give her 10%. Which really means 0% as it's basically impossible unless there is a third eye in Obama's skull.

The more I predict the more I have to take into account the fact that news agencies take money. We are now 4 weeks out from the next election. The race it's self is getting old and what can actually win votes is for the media to make Penn. look like a do or die for Hillary. They are starting to do that, this time though, unlike Ohio, Hillary has to win big to make this work at all. So the media will probably over the next 3 weeks figure out what that magic number is. Personally I think it'll be 10%. If Hillary can win by 10% it'll be a win for her, if not I think the race is over.

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