Obama will win the election in Nov.

I know, I know, it's too early to tell and November is 10 months away. Even Hillary can explain how the dynamics can change. Given that, the chances are slim that McCain can triumph in Nov. The reasons are many:

1. Independents will not support McCain. Up till now McCain had the most attractive platform for independents. Now the tables have turned, McCain is a war supporter, he has to be to maintain the republican base but by doing so he loses the independant voters that see the war as emblematic of everything that is wrong with America.

2. Age matters. In an election that is increasingly about change being old and having experience isn't helpful. I do have to say the McCain people are, in fact, smarter than the Clinton people. He isn't touting 45 years of experience. Instead he is focusing on his ability to be himself.

3. Obama has consistently outperformed. This demonstrates his ability to connect to the heart of voters in America. McCain has yet to come to terms with the reason he has the nomination. America is looking for change. McCain is change to the republicans but it's harder to sell that to America when up against Obama. He would have a smooth road to the nomination against Clinton, but against Obama it's far more of a challenge.

4. The base. Obama could come out tomorrow and support vouchers and still maintain 95% of the democratic base. McCain could mention that a constitutional ban on gay marriage or abortion is silly and he would lose 30% of the republican party. In other words Obama is walking along a 6 lane highway, McCain has 6 cm.

5. Monkeys. America winces every time they see Bush on TV. They are looking for someone that can actually deliver a $5 word without coaching. McCain isn't bad, but he isn't Obama either.

6. The War. Those that care about it will vote for Obama, those that care about the economy will vote for Obama. I honestly don't see any win for McCain. If McCain wanted my vote he would be asking for a balance budget amendment to the constitution, he is not, he will get no support from independents and moderates until he starts talking about this kind of conservatism.

7. The Establishment. McCain is going to have to educate voters, Obama has but to make an appearance. Honestly I see McCain making a bigger personal commitment to change but Obama personifies it even if he doesn't completely represent it.

8. "My Friend/s". McCain has got to stop using this. It's very off-putting. This is not the election to be alienating voters. This will be the biggest turnout of any election in the past 30 years. If you want to attract younger voters you'll be trying hard to convince the electorate of your ideas and not solidifying your base (hint hint hillary).

9. Last but certainly not least, the internet. If you want people to make phone calls or donate money you're going to have to have a strong internet presence. So far Obama has demonstrated superiority.