Clinton enters the 21st century

It looks like Hillary just started using Google Adwords. Obama has been using them for months. I'm amazed the Clinton campaign finally decided to get in the game.

AlienNation

Steve Benen over at The Carpet Bagger Report has a good catch that the Clinton Campaign is thinking about a lawsuit if they find a way that it could help them. Though the media is picking this up they are not putting this together with the lawsuit threatened in Nevada. The Clinton campaign has a history of thinking in terms of using every last tool at their disposal to win. Ironically this is why they are losing.

Obama hasn't touched many of the obvious knocks on the Clinton campaign past or present. Keeping himself far above the grasping that the Clinton campaign is doing. This has been since the beginning and it's one of the big reasons he's attractive to a wider group. I think the Clinton campaign thinks no one hears about this or notices. They are wrong, people hear and read snipets of all the stories. If one of those stories is "Clinton explores lawsuit" they put that with other information that looks more like Clinton is going to be divisive and Obama is a uniter. The press has already covered how similar their positions. What's left is the person and style. Obama is everything that Bush is not and Clinton hasn't done enough to make that disparity. You'll also notice that the Obama campaign very subtly identifies the two. She voted for the war, she's the politics of the past. All of the points the Obama campaign is putting forward is about the differences between he and Clinton, but he and Bush. It has to be subtle to work and they are doing an amazing job of it.

The Future

Want to know the next up and coming influence in the world?

TalkingPointsMemo.com or TPM

It's one of many blogs in the US, it's the best and I'd imagine it will be the dominate force in the blogosphere and the net in general by 2010. I'll go so far as to say that it'll have the most hits of any political website/blog in 2010. I shit you not, more than Kos.

Bill Cunningham digs a hole and fills it with hilarity

For those that missed it Bill Cunningham opened for McCain the other day by stressing Barack's middle name. NPR scored an interview today with Bill to get his side of the story resulting in, quite possibly the funniest segment in the past 2 years.

I highly recommend a listen.

Obama won that debate

Obama acted presidential and Hillary hit no new chords. She needs to fire who ever coaches her on these debates, going from a lame xerox comment to something 2% of america can get, an SNL skit, isn't the best move. Following that with debating the difference between "reject" and "denounce" seems silly and reminds people of "the definition of 'is'" comment Bill is famous for. She also set herself up for a fall on the NAFTA issue, you can't claim 35 years and then deny NAFTA. This is exactly the reason Obama never went after her claiming 35 years of experience. Big parts of those 35 years are not helpful to her.

I enjoyed watching the debate but am still surprised how much better Obama is in every debate. He owes quite a lot to this primary process, he's going to be excellent in the fall debates.

What Independants see in Obama

Stephen F. Hayes at the WSJ had a great piece today looking at how Obama has been able to keep his independent and republican backers while still being the most liberal voting member of senate. Something that both Hillary and increasingly McCain are blind to.

In the end, Mr. Obama is simply campaigning for office in the same way he says he would operate if he were elected. "We're not looking for a chief operating officer when we select a president," he said during a question and answer session at Google headquarters back in December.

"What we're looking for is somebody who will chart a course and say: Here is where America needs to go -- here is how to solve our energy crisis, here's how we need to revamp our education system -- and then gather the talent together and then mobilize that talent to achieve that goal. And to inspire a sense of hope and possibility."

Like Ronald Reagan did.

Glimpses into humanity

The top of reddit right now is a self post: Do you ever type a long and thoughtful comment, then think, "Fuckit, who cares", then cancel?

Fairly often. Sometimes its because I'm six replies deep and really just talking with one person who I don't know in the faintest, so.. fuck it, I got better things to do.

Other times its because I suddenly figure the comment I'm replying to is a troll, so fuck it.

Often its because I realise that I really don't know for certain what I'm talking about (ie, where do I find a reilable source for this statement) but its really not important enough to search for a source, so fuck it.

And the rest of the time its because I've realised that the argument is more nuanced than really befits online debate. I could try and construct a solid argument in the next ten paragraphs, but fuck it: you, random stranger on the internet, can just stay wrong.

To some it up, laziness. It's basically why we have a government and society that often fails to to choose a path that makes sense. This doesn't just happen online, it happens everyday and all kinds of circumstances but at least I was somewhat heartened by the reply:

My favourite is when I make assertions, look for sources to back up my position and realise I'm wrong :)

The US Economy

Brian Wesbury had a great article over at Real Clear Politics about inflation. I should admit that my interest in politics stems in large part from my indulgence in economics. I'm also an independent because both the left and the right fail miserably when it comes to understanding macro economics. Or rather they understand it but their constituencies don't.

We are headed for a rude awakening this year, a friend sent me this list of countries current account deficit and I think it sums up the major problem facing the global economy. Namely that the US buys more than it sells. Obviously it can't go on forever and at some point the dollar has to fall and everyone else's currency rises. I predict, this will happen in 2008.

Certainly it's happened a little over the last year examples include the euro and the looney however it's been on a small scale and offset from the massive ammount of foreign reinvestment into America. This year we have reached a point where America is in recession and will no longer be buying items that are not really needed. They will still eat, drink, and be merry but a more minimalist future is in the works. Who does this harm? The nations that trade with the US, suddenly not only is there a lack of a US market but the US has very little goods to sell. This brings about a rapidly declining dollar as countries pull out of their US investments so that they can actually buy manufactured goods. I see this lasting till 2010, assuming the US government doesn't mess up and interfere with economics. It'll take 2 years for the US economy to create the manufacturing economy that we've been unable to support for the last 10 years due to the strength of the dollar.

By 2012 the global recession will start to fade and the dollar will again gain strength. America's downturn will end in the spring of 2010.

CNN - Confused News Network

Not sure if you've been following this story but Chez Pazienza has a new post about CNN, his former employer.

My only hope is that Ed Litvak's departure from American Morning will somehow be good for the show, although I'm inclined to think that until someone puts an arm around Jon Klein, writes something nice about him, then pushes him out the door, nothing is going to change. It'll just be more of the same nonsense.

Not much in the article but it is interesting how major media is still clueless about how to harness the internet and not have it blow up in their face, as this example exemplifies. The networks would be wise to create online communities around their shows. Certainly it releases control and causes many small fires but it's better than having big fires that cause severe damage.

Predition Check

So sunday I claimed:

Monday we'll see Obama ahead in Texas and within 5 points in Ohio, demonstrating just how much the Xerox comment didn't help her in the debate.

Looks like I was at least half right. A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows the Ohio primary to be at its narrowest margin yet from any pollster. Hillary Clinton still has the lead, but it's a bare 50%-46% edge over Barack Obama. Thanks TPM for the catch.

We'll have to wait till this afternoon to see if there are some new Texas polls.

Update! Looks like CNN has a Texas poll out and Obama is up 50% to 46%. Still a statistical dead heat and other polls out today have Clinton still with the lead but I feel pretty good.

Obama will win the election in Nov.

I know, I know, it's too early to tell and November is 10 months away. Even Hillary can explain how the dynamics can change. Given that, the chances are slim that McCain can triumph in Nov. The reasons are many:

1. Independents will not support McCain. Up till now McCain had the most attractive platform for independents. Now the tables have turned, McCain is a war supporter, he has to be to maintain the republican base but by doing so he loses the independant voters that see the war as emblematic of everything that is wrong with America.

2. Age matters. In an election that is increasingly about change being old and having experience isn't helpful. I do have to say the McCain people are, in fact, smarter than the Clinton people. He isn't touting 45 years of experience. Instead he is focusing on his ability to be himself.

3. Obama has consistently outperformed. This demonstrates his ability to connect to the heart of voters in America. McCain has yet to come to terms with the reason he has the nomination. America is looking for change. McCain is change to the republicans but it's harder to sell that to America when up against Obama. He would have a smooth road to the nomination against Clinton, but against Obama it's far more of a challenge.

4. The base. Obama could come out tomorrow and support vouchers and still maintain 95% of the democratic base. McCain could mention that a constitutional ban on gay marriage or abortion is silly and he would lose 30% of the republican party. In other words Obama is walking along a 6 lane highway, McCain has 6 cm.

5. Monkeys. America winces every time they see Bush on TV. They are looking for someone that can actually deliver a $5 word without coaching. McCain isn't bad, but he isn't Obama either.

6. The War. Those that care about it will vote for Obama, those that care about the economy will vote for Obama. I honestly don't see any win for McCain. If McCain wanted my vote he would be asking for a balance budget amendment to the constitution, he is not, he will get no support from independents and moderates until he starts talking about this kind of conservatism.

7. The Establishment. McCain is going to have to educate voters, Obama has but to make an appearance. Honestly I see McCain making a bigger personal commitment to change but Obama personifies it even if he doesn't completely represent it.

8. "My Friend/s". McCain has got to stop using this. It's very off-putting. This is not the election to be alienating voters. This will be the biggest turnout of any election in the past 30 years. If you want to attract younger voters you'll be trying hard to convince the electorate of your ideas and not solidifying your base (hint hint hillary).

9. Last but certainly not least, the internet. If you want people to make phone calls or donate money you're going to have to have a strong internet presence. So far Obama has demonstrated superiority.

Obama wins Nevada... a second time

Looks like Obama picked up even more delegates in Nevada then he expected.

Instead of being "ready on day one" Clinton may want to try being ready to get the actual delegates she deserves today. Though maybe Mark Pen advised her that these delegates don't mean as much since they are from a small state.

Objectivity, Clinton could use some

Michael Goodwin makes a good point that Hillary is starting to look unpresidential. Between the Xerox comment and her odd decision to mock Obama. I'm wondering if Hillary has lost all objectivity. Certainly she must understand that Obama is striking a cord with voters. If she has any chance of winning by the margin she needs in Ohio and Texas she needs to go beyond mocking her competition. She may solidify her base with these tactics but that's not going to help her win. She needs to come out with her own vision of change and progress that actually resonates with America. If she wasn't taking all this personally she would see that Obama supporters are not her enemy and his message is not attacking her. All she's doing is highlighting why people like Obama. Monday we'll see Obama ahead in Texas and within 5 points in Ohio, demonstrating just how much the Xerox comment didn't help her in the debate.

A quick prediction... Hillary will have at least 3 more major press making gaffs between now and March 5. She is getting cornered and that is going to force her to try some crazy ideas.

Blog Buyout

The biggest issue that will confront the blogosphere in 2008 will be the amount of money the Obama campaign spent on ads supporting those blogs. It's incredibly smart on the Obama front and just one of the many reasons I support Obama for understanding where the nation and I are coming from.

It took the republicans almost 20 years to understand the impact of right wing radio (which I listen to), it's only taken 10 years for the democrats to understand the benefits of the blogosphere.

Explorations in Republican problems

Lets have a fun look at the Wisconsin exit polls:

CNN Wisconsin exit polls

In the democratic primaries there was a 9% Republican precipitation out of a 1,098,802 total democratic primary votes. So that means 98,892 voters are republican leaning, and of those 72% voted for Obama which gives us 71,202 republicans that voted for Obama. The entire republican vote in Wisconsin was 403,568 if we take the named republicans (73%) out of that, we have 294,605 self described republicans that voted in the republican primary. Total republicans voting in Wisconsin is 365,807, and 98,892 of those voted for Obama. That's 27% of the republican base voting for Obama. This does not bode well for the republicans in November.

And the flip side? Lets start with the number of democrats in the republican primary which is 5% of 294,605 or 14,730. They don't even have info for results that small. Even if all 20,178 voters voted for Clinton that would only make up .01 democratic primary voters. Again the republicans have to be worried.

Ohio and Texas; the end of the begining.

There are all sorts of things to predict here. I'll start off with the easy prediction first.

Obama will clinch the nomination.
As it stands, nothing is preventing Obama from doing well enough to effectively end the democratic primary. He has what some have labeled "momentum" but I choose to call it advantage, specifically that he has a chance to campaign. Obama has done well in almost every state he has had a chance to campaign in. The polls reflect this having inevitably trended toward him when he has spent time in the state. Iowa is the best example of this. We have over a week to go and he is already making it a close race.

Specifically I'm seeing Obama continue to do well in the polls but I see him leveling off at +5-10% ahead by march 5 with ultimate wins of 8% in Ohio and a total delegate lead of 20 in Texas.

Clinton will not give up on march 6
There are several reasons for this but mainly they will want to fund raise to pay off debt. Minor reasons include Bill being able to relax, party cohesion, Hillary's senate seat.

Huckabee will drop out within a week of Hillary's concession
I believe the only reason he is in the race is because it gives him a platform. If Hillary drops the media will stop covering the primaries.

That's enough predictions for now. If I get 10% right I'll be happy! I would like to comment on Hillary's campaign though. I've read a lot of comments and blogs but I think Steve Benen has it right when he says:

Given the degree of outrage, one might assume these are new Obama mailings, but they’re actually old ones, which the Clinton campaign hopes to exploit now for new mileage.

One would think with as much money as they are spending on consultants they would have come up with something original.

Beyond this, in general, the Clinton campaign has missed a crucial point this election. Blogs are read by donors. Obama may have been lucky but fundamentally he has been able to capitalize on the internet's ability to convince voters. Those voters also donate. I remember the first major press Obama got and that was his ability to match donations even when he was down 30% in the national polls. The internet and people commenting and blogging are responsible for that.

Obligitory First Post

I just want to say thanks to Adam for his continual attempts get me to create this instead of constantly sending him IMs and to my fiancé for putting up with my constant political rantings. That said let me introduce myself. I'm an independent. I will admit to voting for Bush in 2000. I regret that decision with a large part of my being. Who would have thought that he was telling the truth about being an evangelical Christian? I'm an Obama supporter but have reservations, though not enough from keeping me from phone banking and donating a paltry amount to his campaign. Other items will probably come up as the blog goes on, however let me lay down some objectives:

1. To make some hard core predictions, because I'll be wrong, and it'll be fun!

2. To foster discussion.

3. To vent a little about what I'm thinking.

Thanks for reading, I hope you all enjoy.